The phrase “dark horse” may itself seem extremely ominous, and the vast majority of horse racing gamblers are discouraged from wagering on them. Seasoned gamblers, though, know that they are a goldmine.
These underdogs do have potential. Although they need to be long shots to win, chances are that they will. There is a possibility for a big win within that narrow margin. This does not imply that you should bet on any underdog you can find. To be profitable, you must locate underdogs that possess value.
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Dark horses and their value
We all love an underdog tale in horse racing. Something about some unknown horse nobody has ever heard of, then out of nowhere it comes along and wins against all odds to claim the race. Bookmakers love it even more, as the less likely a horse is to win, the higher your return if you put money on them to win.
A “dark horse” is a race competitor who is unknown but could just as well be a winner. They're usually forgotten and overshadowed by their celebrity counterparts in the race. There are a lot of reasons. Perhaps they don't have a string of wins to their credit, or they are new entries to the arena.
To identify such dark horses, look at various factors that qualify them as dark horses. Start by looking at their performance record for year-to-year steady improvement, more than the fact that they won.
Underdog horse racing betting strategies you can use
Since you now know how to identify underdogs with value and promise, it is now time to know how to capitalise on them.
Look beyond the win rates
Dark horses lose more than they win, and that is perfectly okay. Savvy punters make money on them by seeing past their winning rates. You will be able to maximise value on Win/Place/Show bets and exotic bets.
For instance, placing a longshot in an exacta where you are predicting the first two to cross the wire can make a small bet pay out a large sum. With this multi-horse bet, you don't worry so much about whether the horse will win, but where they will place.
Check the recent form
Many bettors dismiss a horse because of their low win rate, especially when they are on a losing streak. However, many horses can improve under the radar. That said, you can examine their recent performances to look for indicators such as speed figures, strong finishes, and poor starts where the horses were still able to place competitively.
Not only that, but sometimes, a horse’s recent workout can also hint at their improvement. The key here is to look for positive trends that signal the horse is improving, which is a sign that it will place well or even win the upcoming race outright. There are a lot of legitimate sites online, like https://racing.fanduel.com that offer detailed information about a horse’s workout stats, speed figures, past performances, and betting odds.
Pace scenarios
Understanding race pace is significant since all race horses gallop differently. When the race is long and there are lots of speed horses, there is a possibility of a pace meltdown, and this suits closers and stalkers. They prefer galloping in the rear initially before overtaking other competition near the finish line, and thus, they are most suitable for longer races.
In handicapping a race, try to project the pace scenario. If you see an underdog with the running style of the race he is running into, you may have discovered a betting edge.
Class drops and equipment changes
A quiet but solid suggestion is to examine horses that are dropping in class, i.e., running in less competitive races. They usually have poor odds after recently losing, so they are good bets if you are searching for underdog value.
Equipment changes provide us with another clue. Changes like adding blinkers, Lasix, or jockey switches typically signal that the trainer is attempting to improve the performance of their horse. They typically signal immediate positive results, something punters should take heed of.
Final words
Dark horse betting is a skill that takes effort and time to master. You might not be successful at first, since dark horse betting calls for great insight and analysis, bilities sharpened with experience over time. The techniques outlined in this article make a great starting point, especially if you're new to dark horse betting.
