The debate between Live Dealer games and RNG (Random Number Generator) games has always been a point of discussion among both players and industry experts. To shed light on this topic, we looked into a study comparing win probabilities between these two types of games, focusing on Blackjack and Roulette, two of the most popular choices.
Table of contents
The scope of the case study
The study involved analysing over 100,000 simulated rounds of both Live Dealer and RNG games, focusing on several key metrics:
- Win Rates: The frequency at which players win versus the house.
- House Edge: The expected loss per unit wagered, a critical indicator of a game's profitability for the casino.
- Variance: The fluctuations in outcomes that can impact the player's experience and bankroll.
Methodology
To achieve reliable results, the study utilised the following approach:
- Data Collection: Sourced data from reputable
online casinos , ensuring that both RNG and Live Dealer games were from the same providers to maintain consistency in game rules and settings. - Simulation: For RNG games, they used a high-fidelity simulation tool that mimics real-world conditions, ensuring accurate representation of outcomes. For Live Dealer games, they observed actual gameplay streamed live, collecting data on a round-by-round basis. They used Evolution Gaming games for this case study.
- Statistical Analysis: They applied statistical methods, including standard deviation and confidence intervals, to analyse the data, ensuring that their findings were robust and free from anomalies.
Findings: RNG games
Blackjack:
- Win Rate: In their simulations, players won 42.7% of the time, with the dealer winning 49.2%, and the remainder resulting in ties.
- House Edge: The calculated house edge for RNG Blackjack was approximately 0.5%, aligning closely with the theoretical edge of 0.5%.
- Variance: The variance in RNG Blackjack was relatively low, reflecting the consistent application of the algorithm.
One factor that stands out is the immersive experience these games offer, closely replicating the feel of a physical casino. For those interested in exploring a variety of live dealer options and understanding how they stack up against RNG games, this site provides a comprehensive overview and detailed comparisons.
Roulette:
- Win Rate: For a single number bet in European RNG Roulette, the win rate was exactly 2.7%, matching the theoretical probability.
- House Edge: As expected, the house edge was 2.7% for European Roulette.
- Variance: RNG Roulette displayed low variance, with outcomes adhering strictly to probabilistic expectations.
Findings: Live dealer games
Blackjack:
- Win Rate: The win rate for players in Live Dealer Blackjack was 41.5%, slightly lower than in RNG Blackjack. Dealers won 50.5% of the time, with ties making up the remainder.
- House Edge: The house edge was slightly higher at 0.6%, possibly due to the human element and slight deviations in game management (e.g., shuffling techniques).
- Variance: Variance in Live Dealer Blackjack was higher than in RNG games, likely due to human factors such as shuffling, dealer decisions, and even the pace of the game.
Roulette:
- Win Rate: The win rate for a single number bet in Live Dealer Roulette was close to 2.7%, but with a slight increase in variance.
- House Edge: The house edge remained at 2.7%, consistent with theoretical expectations for European Roulette.
- Variance: The physical nature of the roulette wheel introduced higher variance, with more pronounced streaks of wins and losses compared to the RNG version.
In-depth analysis
House edge and profitability
- Their study confirms that RNG games, with their consistent algorithm-driven outcomes, offer a more stable house edge, making them slightly more predictable in terms of profitability for the casino.
- Live Dealer games, while marginally more favourable to the house due to the human element, still maintain a competitive edge, with only slight deviations from RNG counterparts.
Impact of variance
- The higher variance in Live Dealer games could be attributed to various factors such as human error, the physical mechanics of the game (especially in roulette), and the psychological impact on players. This variance can lead to more pronounced streaks of wins and losses, which can either enhance or diminish the player experience depending on the outcome.
Player preferences and psychological factors
- Despite the slightly higher house edge and variance, many players prefer Live Dealer games for their immersive experience. The presence of a human dealer, the interaction, and the visual appeal of a live game can outweigh the statistical advantages of RNG games.
- RNG games, on the other hand, appeal to players who value consistency, speed, and a more predictable gaming experience.
Conclusion: The case for each
Their case study reveals that while RNG games offer a slightly better chance for players in terms of win rate and a lower house edge, Live Dealer games bring a different value proposition with a more engaging and dynamic gaming experience. The differences in win probabilities and variance are statistically significant but may not be substantial enough to deter players from either format based on these factors alone.
For players who prioritise winning consistency, RNG games may be the better choice. However, for those who seek a richer, more interactive experience, Live Dealer games offer a compelling alternative, despite the slightly higher risk and variance.
From a business perspective, online casinos should consider promoting both formats to cater to a broad audience, understanding that each format appeals to different player psychology and preferences. The decision between RNG and Live Dealer games ultimately comes down to what the player values more: the thrill of live interaction or the predictability of RNG outcomes.
